Iran War Fallout: When the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed its Supreme Leader on February 28, they expected a swift end to the conflict. The objective was well defined: a regime change in Tehran and the elimination of Iran’s capability to develop a nuclear weapon.
More than two months later, it looks like a stalemate rather than a decisive military victory. While both sides have agreed to a ceasefire, US President Donald Trump has said that the truce remains fragile. Thus, a fresh round of strikes cannot be ruled out. And if that happens, Iran is likely to respond by targeting military or civilian infrastructure across the Gulf.
Therefore, at this stage, it would be premature to declare any of the warring parties victorious. Yet, several unexpected winners have emerged. The war may not have produced a clear military victor, but it has revealed a “hierarchy of resilience”. When disruption at the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves through global trade, the world underwent an unplanned stress test.